Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally rose above $38,500 on Jan. 29, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels. For the past few days, Bitcoin’s sentiment has closely followed the U.S. equity markets. Hence, analysts warned traders to be careful and not to read much into any possible weekend rallies when traditional markets are closed because it could be a trap.
However, analysts at trading suite Decentrader said in a recent report that a “near-term relief bounce” is possible. The report also highlighted that “meaningful buyers” were stepping in and that could result in “a potential change in the higher time frame trend from bearish to bullish.”
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The recent downturn in Bitcoin seems to have turned the JPMorgan analysts bearish as they believe the increased volatility could “hinder further institutional adoption.” In a note, the strategists have reduced their long-term theoretical Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $38,000.
If Bitcoin extends its recovery, select altcoins could attract buying from the aggressive bulls. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that could extend the recovery in the short term.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin’s relief rally has reached the stiff resistance zone between $37,332.70 and $39,600. The 20-day exponential moving average ($39,475) is also present in this zone making this important for the bears to defend.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative zone indicate advantage to bears.
If the sellers pull the price back below $37,332.70, the BTC/USDT pair could gradually drop to $35,507.01 and later retest the Jan. 24 intraday low at $32,917.17. A break and close below this support could clear the path for a possible drop to $30,000.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $39,600, it will suggest a possible change in the short-term trend. The pair could then rally to $43,505 and later retest the 200-day simple moving average ($48,833).
The 4-hour chart shows that the 20-EMA has started to turn up gradually and the RSI has risen into the positive zone. This indicates that bulls are trying to make a comeback. If buyers drive the price above $39,600, the pair could reach the 200-SMA, which may act as a resistance.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level and slips below $37,312.70, it will indicate that bears have not yet given up. The sellers will then try to pull the price to $35,507.01, which is an important support for the bulls to defend.
If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. That may increase the possibility of a break above $39,600.
LINK/USDT
Chainlink (LINK) has been range-bound between $15 and $36 for the past several months. Several attempts to escape the range have failed, indicating that bulls are buying at the support and bears are selling at the resistance.
The bears pulled the price below $15 on several occasions in the past few days but they could not sustain the lower levels. This may have attracted buying from aggressive traders who are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($18.91).
If they succeed, the LINK/USDT pair could rise to the 200-day SMA ($24.75). Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to pull the pair below $15 and start a new downtrend.
The 4-hour chart shows that bulls have pushed the price above the $16.88 overhead resistance. The 20-EMA is turning up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge.
If buyers sustain the price above $16.88, the pair could start an up-move to $20 and then to $23. Conversely, if the price turns down and plummets below $16.88, it will indicate that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to $14.
HNT/USDT
Helium (HNT) plunged below the 200-day SMA ($26.67) on Jan. 21, but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. The bulls aggressively purchased the dip to $20 and pushed the price back above the 200-day SMA on Jan. 26.
The recovery hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($28.84) and turned down but the bulls did not allow the price to dip below the 200-day SMA. The price has been trading between the moving averages for the past three days.
This tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If bulls drive and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the HNT/USDT pair could rally to $36 and then to the downtrend line.
This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and plummets below the 200-day SMA. That may pull the pair down to $20.
The price broke out of the downtrend line, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip. The bears tried to sink the price back below the 20-EMA but the bulls are attempting to defend the support.
The up-move may pick up momentum after bulls drive the price above $31 as that could signal a 1-2-3 bottom. There is a minor resistance at the 200-SMA but once that is cleared, the pair could start its march toward $40. Conversely, if the price turns down and plummets below $26, the pair could drop to $24.
Related: Bitcoin miners believe global hash rate to grow ‘aggressively’
FLOW/USDT
Flow (FLOW) has been in a strong downtrend for the past few months. The bears pulled the price below the strong support at $6 on Jan. 22 but have not been able to build upon their advantage. This indicates accumulation at lower levels.
The bulls have pushed the price back above the breakdown level and the 20-day EMA ($6.41) today. If they sustain the price above the resistance level, it will signal a possible change in trend.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI has recovered into the positive territory, indicating that bulls are on a comeback.
This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and plummets below the $6 support. Such a move will indicate that bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.
The 4-hour chart shows the price is facing resistance at the 200-SMA. This is a critical level to watch out for because the previous recovery had faltered at this resistance. If the price turns down from the current level, the FLOW/USDT pair could drop to the 20-EMA.
If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will indicate that bulls are buying on dips. The buyers will then make one more attempt to push the pair above the 200-SMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to the overhead resistance zone at $9.27 to $9.70.
ONE/USDT
Harmony (ONE) is trading inside a large range between $0.16 and $0.36. The bears recently tried to sink the price below the range but the bulls firmly held their ground.
The price has rebounded off the support and the bulls will now try to push the ONE/USDT pair above the 200-day SMA ($0.19). If they succeed, the pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($0.23) where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.
A break and close above the 20-day EMA could clear the path for a possible rally to $0.28. Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below $0.16. If they can pull it off, it will signal the possible start of a new downtrend.
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The 20-EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint indicating a balance between supply and demand.
This indecision could tilt in favor of the bulls if the price rises and sustains above the triangle. That could suggest a possible trend reversal and the pair may rise to $0.22 and later to $0.26.
This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down and plummets below the support line. Such a move will indicate that the triangle acted as a continuation pattern.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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